The South Carolina Gamecocks are playing for pride, not playoff hopes, when they host the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Williams-Brice Stadium on Saturday, November 22, 2025. It’s the last home game of a brutal season — one that saw five straight losses, a devastating 31-30 collapse against Texas A&M, and the quiet death of any remaining bowl dreams. But for a program still reeling from the emotional toll of its worst stretch in over a decade, this isn’t just another game. It’s a chance to stop the bleeding — and maybe, just maybe, send the seniors out with a win.
Why This Game Matters More Than the Odds Suggest
Even with South Carolina listed as a massive -24.5 point favorite by BetMGM, the numbers don’t tell the whole story. ESPN’s FPI gives the Gamecocks a 94.2% chance to win — higher than most preseason projections for national title contenders. But the SP+ model, which weights efficiency over raw outcomes, sees it as a tighter battle: 84% chance, projected 34-19 final. That’s not just a discrepancy — it’s a warning.
Coastal Carolina may be 6-4, but they’ve lost four of their last five games against non-conference opponents. And they’ve failed to cover the spread in six straight such matchups. Their offense, which scored 40+ points in four straight games before falling 45-40 to Georgia Southern, now faces a defense that’s given up 29+ points in three straight games. The twist? Samari Collier, their starting quarterback, is out with an injury. Without him, Coastal’s high-octane attack loses its rhythm. They’ve averaged 194 rushing yards per game — but can they move the ball without their leader?
The Gamecocks’ Desperate Path to a Win
South Carolina’s offense has been a mess. They’ve yet to rush for 200 yards all season — and that’s the key to beating Coastal Carolina, according to Pete Fiutak of College Football News. Their passing game is inconsistent, their offensive line has struggled, and their quarterback rotation has lacked identity. But if South Carolina Gamecocks can establish the run early — and they’ve won the first quarter in three of their last four non-conference home games — they can control the clock, drain Coastal’s energy, and force turnovers.
There’s history here, too. The Gamecocks have won nine of their last 10 non-conference home games. They’ve dominated the first half in nine of those contests. That’s not luck — it’s momentum built on home-field advantage and defensive pressure. And with fans still showing up despite the losing streak, the noise at Williams-Brice could be louder than ever.
Coastal Carolina: The Underdog That Still Believes
Don’t count the Chanticleers out just because they’re heavy underdogs. They’re still bowl-eligible. They’ve beaten Appalachian State and Louisiana this season. And their moneyline has hit in 6 of their last 12 games — a 51% ROI, according to BetMGM. Their strength? Physicality. They play with grit. They don’t fold under pressure.
But without Collier, they’re playing with a broken gear. Backup quarterbacks have combined for just 387 passing yards this season. Their running game will be the lifeline — but South Carolina’s front seven has improved in recent weeks, allowing just 112 rushing yards per game in their last three contests. If Coastal can’t get the ball downfield quickly, they’ll be forced into predictable runs — and that’s a recipe for long drives and three-and-outs.
The Betting Truth: Covering the Spread Is the Real Story
Here’s the odd part: nearly every analyst — from JC Shurburtt at 247 Sports to Hero Sports — believes Coastal Carolina will cover the 24.5-point spread. Fox Sports’ AI model projects a 34-18 final. ESPN SP+ says 34-19. That’s a 15-16 point win for South Carolina. Not 25. Not 30.
And the over/under? 49.5 points. But Hero Sports predicts the game will go under. Why? Because South Carolina’s offense is slow, inefficient, and prone to stalls. Coastal Carolina’s offense, without Collier, will stall even more. The game could be a grind — low-scoring, tense, ugly. That’s not what fans want. But it’s what the data suggests.
What’s at Stake Beyond the Final Score
If South Carolina wins, they’ll finish 4-7 — still a losing season. But they’ll enter their rivalry game against Clemson with momentum, not despair. That matters. For the seniors, for the recruits watching, for the fans who still show up in the rain — a win here means something.
For Coastal Carolina, it’s about dignity. They’re out of Sun Belt title contention, but they still have a chance to finish 7-5. That’s bowl eligibility. That’s a winning season. That’s the difference between being remembered as a team that peaked too early — or one that fought through adversity.
And for the fans? It’s about pride. After five straight losses, after the heartbreak against Texas A&M, after a season that felt like it slipped through their fingers — this is the last chance to feel something good again.
Final Prediction: A Win, But Not a Blowout
South Carolina will win. No doubt about that. But they won’t dominate. Coastal Carolina’s defense, though porous, has held teams to under 30 points in three of their last five games. The Gamecocks’ offense? Still unreliable. The weather? Cool and damp — not ideal for passing.
Expect a slow start. A physical first half. A third-quarter surge from South Carolina as Coastal tires. Final score? South Carolina 31, Coastal Carolina 21. The Gamecocks cover? No. The total? Under 49.5. And the Chanticleers? They leave with their heads up — and a chance to finish strong.
Frequently Asked Questions
Can Coastal Carolina still make a bowl game?
Yes. Coastal Carolina is currently 6-4 and bowl-eligible. A win over South Carolina would improve them to 7-4, making them a strong candidate for a mid-tier bowl like the New Mexico Bowl or the Hawaii Bowl. They need just one more win to secure a postseason berth.
Why is South Carolina such a heavy favorite despite their losing record?
Despite their 3-7 record, South Carolina plays at home against a weaker non-conference opponent. They’re in the SEC, which carries more weight in analytics models. ESPN’s FPI and SP+ systems heavily favor SEC teams in home matchups, even struggling ones. Coastal Carolina’s injuries and poor away record against Power 5 teams further tilt the odds.
How does Samari Collier’s injury impact Coastal Carolina’s chances?
Collier’s absence removes Coastal Carolina’s most dynamic playmaker. He accounted for over 60% of their offensive production this season. His backup has thrown just 12 passes all year. Without his mobility and decision-making, Coastal’s offense becomes predictable — and easier for South Carolina’s defense to contain.
Is this game meaningful for South Carolina’s future recruiting?
Absolutely. High school recruits are watching. A fifth straight loss hurts perception, but a win over a bowl-eligible team shows resilience. Coaches are using this game as a litmus test for commitment — if the team finishes strong, it signals stability. Losing again could make recruiting in-state talent even harder next cycle.
What’s the historical trend for South Carolina against non-conference teams at home?
South Carolina has won nine of their last 10 non-conference home games, and won the first half in nine of those contests. Since 2018, they’ve outscored non-conference opponents by an average of 21.3 points per game at Williams-Brice — a clear home-field advantage that even bad teams can leverage.
Will this game affect Coastal Carolina’s Sun Belt standing?
No. James Madison has already clinched the Sun Belt East title, so Coastal Carolina’s loss to Georgia Southern ended their divisional hopes. But finishing 7-5 or better could earn them a top-tier Sun Belt bowl bid, like the Cure Bowl or Camellia Bowl — and keep their program on an upward trajectory.
