When Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman stepped into the White House on November 18, 2025, he wasn’t just visiting—he was negotiating the future of Middle Eastern power, American defense, and the global semiconductor race. By the time he left Washington, D.C., two wildly different numbers were being floated: Donald Trump’s team claimed $270 billion in new investment deals, while Saudi state media announced $557 billion. The discrepancy isn’t a typo. It’s a symptom of a deeper game—one where pledges, projections, and hard cash blur together in the high-stakes theater of U.S.-Saudi relations.
The White House Signing: AI, Jets, and a $1.5 Trillion Ask
The centerpiece of the visit was the Strategic Artificial Intelligence Partnership Washington, D.C., signed on November 19, 2025, by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Antonio Rubio and Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud. The MOU isn’t just about software—it’s about silicon. According to the joint release, the deal aims to build AI clusters in Saudi Arabia using its “competitive advantages in land, energy, and geography.” That means data centers powered by cheap solar and gas, cooled by desert winds, and fueled by chips from American factories.That’s where Tess deBlanc-Knowles, former White House AI policy advisor and now Senior Director at the Atlantic Council, sees the real shift: “This likely means approval of a package of advanced AI chips—think NVIDIA’s H200 equivalents—to Saudi Arabia,” she told reporters. “MBS didn’t just want access. He wanted control over the computing backbone of his nation’s future.”
And then there were the jets. President Trump greenlit the sale of fifth-generation F-35 fighter jets to the Kingdom—a move analysts say signals a full-throated embrace of Riyadh after years of hesitation under Biden. Dan, an analyst at the Atlantic Council, called it “an indication that the U.S. president is going all-in on the U.S.-Saudi relationship.” But here’s the catch: no one knows if it’s a one-way street. “The Biden administration had pushed for a mutual defense treaty,” Dan noted. “Trump hasn’t said a word on whether Saudi Arabia now owes the U.S. anything in return.”
The $270 Billion vs. $557 Billion Divide
Why the mismatch? It’s not just PR. The $270 billion figure reflects new, immediate commitments—contracts signed, funds allocated, logistics underway. The $557 billion? That includes multi-year pledges, long-term infrastructure projects, and investments tied to Vision 2030’s broader goals. The Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman himself made it clear during the Oval Office meeting on November 18: Trump asked him to raise Saudi Arabia’s previous $600 billion investment pledge from 2017 to $1 trillion. Then, as Trump later joked at a D.C. conference, “While we were taking the picture, I said, ‘Could you make it $1.5 trillion?’ So he’s got something to think about.”That line—casual, almost offhand—captures the tone of the entire visit. This isn’t a negotiation. It’s a handshake with a hidden clause. As Middle East Eye pointed out, past agreements have often been “pledges on paper, not payments in bank accounts.” The 2017 $600 billion pledge? Less than 20% was ever delivered. “Sorting out promises from cash,” they wrote, “has been a recurring headache.”
China in the Shadows: Rare Earths, Huawei, and the Silent Rival
While the world watches F-35s and AI chips, Beijing is watching too. China controls over 80% of global rare earth refining—materials essential for radar systems, jet engines, and AI hardware. “They’ve used exports as leverage before,” noted Middle East Eye. “When Trump slapped tariffs on Chinese goods in 2018, Beijing restricted shipments. That’s not hypothetical—it’s history.”And then there’s Huawei. Trump said he was “working on approving export licenses” for chips to the Chinese tech giant—referred to as “Humain” in one source, likely a transcription error. But as of November 19, no such license had been granted. Bloomberg reported the U.S. would “greenlight initial sales of tens of thousands of chips,” but to whom? Saudi Arabia? A third party? The ambiguity is intentional.
Meanwhile, a rare earth minerals joint venture was quietly agreed upon—financed entirely by the U.S. Department of Defense, according to Middle East Eye. “Saudi Arabia drove a hard bargain,” the outlet noted. “They didn’t just want minerals—they wanted the U.S. to pay for the infrastructure.”
What This Means for the Region—and the World
This isn’t just about money. It’s about alignment. Saudi Arabia, under Vision 2030, is betting its future on tech, not oil. The U.S., under Trump, is betting on Riyadh as a counterweight to China’s influence in the Middle East. Analyst Melanie Robbins suggested the two leaders should “work with Saudi Arabia and the UAE on a Gaza stabilization fund,” a subtle nod to the fact that regional security now ties directly to economic partnerships.But here’s the tension: Can you build an AI-powered future on fighter jets and semiconductors while ignoring the geopolitical costs? The U.S. gets a strategic ally. Saudi Arabia gets advanced tech and military protection. But who pays if things go wrong? And what happens when China decides to cut off rare earths again?
What’s Next?
Look for three things in the next 90 days:- First, a formal announcement on F-35 delivery timelines—likely by early 2026.
- Second, the release of a list of approved semiconductor exporters to Saudi Arabia, possibly including NVIDIA, AMD, and Intel.
- Third, a quiet U.S. diplomatic push to get the UAE and Saudi Arabia to co-fund a Gaza stabilization initiative, as Robbins recommended.
And don’t be surprised if Trump brings up that $1.5 trillion number again—this time, with a signed contract in hand.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is there such a big difference between the $270 billion and $557 billion figures?
The $270 billion reflects immediate, verifiable commitments—contracts signed, funds committed, and logistics set in motion. The $557 billion includes long-term Vision 2030 projects, speculative investments, and rollovers from the $600 billion pledge made in 2017. Many of those earlier pledges were never fully funded, and experts warn this round may follow the same pattern unless strict verification mechanisms are introduced.
What does the AI partnership actually mean for Saudi Arabia’s economy?
It’s a foundational shift. Saudi Arabia lacks a skilled tech workforce but has vast land, cheap energy, and strategic location. The AI partnership lets them build data centers that serve not just the region but global clients. With advanced chips and U.S. technical support, they aim to become a hub for cloud computing and AI training—reducing reliance on imported labor and positioning themselves as a digital export economy.
Is the F-35 sale a sign the U.S. is abandoning its human rights concerns?
It’s less about abandoning concerns and more about redefining priorities. Under Trump, strategic alignment with anti-Iran allies like Saudi Arabia outweighs criticism of domestic policies. The U.S. has historically sold advanced weapons to allies with questionable records—Israel, Egypt, India. The F-35 sale signals that security cooperation now trumps human rights rhetoric in U.S. foreign policy, at least for now.
Could China retaliate if Saudi Arabia leans too far toward the U.S.?
Absolutely. China controls nearly all global rare earth refining. If Saudi Arabia cuts ties with Chinese tech firms or restricts Chinese investments in its infrastructure, Beijing could restrict exports of critical materials needed for the F-35s and AI chips. That’s why the U.S. is financing a joint rare earth venture—it’s a hedge against Chinese leverage. The risk isn’t theoretical; it’s already happened during the 2018 trade war.
What role does the $600 billion pledge from 2017 play in today’s deals?
It’s the baseline. The 2017 pledge, made during Trump’s first term, was never fully realized—only about $110 billion in actual investments materialized. The current $270B–$557B figures are built on that foundation, with new additions layered on top. Trump’s push for $1.5 trillion is less about new money and more about rebranding old promises as new commitments, giving the appearance of massive progress.
Will this deal affect U.S.-China relations?
It already has. The U.S. is now explicitly building a tech and defense alliance with Saudi Arabia to reduce dependence on Chinese supply chains. Export controls on advanced chips, financing of rare earth projects, and F-35 sales are all part of a broader strategy to isolate China from critical Middle Eastern infrastructure. Beijing sees this as containment—and may respond with economic pressure on U.S. allies or accelerated efforts to bypass Western tech.
